Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Forex Razor Review of FX Flash Expert Advisor

Features Description
Style Trades the reversals within the larger trend
SL/TP SL: 10-50 pips / TP: 10-15 pips
Pairs AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF
Timeframe H1, M15
Price $47
License 1 account
Refund Policy 60 days unconditional
NFA Compliance No
Protection MQL Lock
Website http://www.fxflash.com
Performance Tests (Live) $300 real: http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/account.aspx?sid=14667
Performance Tests (Demo) $5000 demo: http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/account.aspx?sid=14666


FX Flash is getting a lot of buzz these days so we decided to review it.

Excel Markets Trading Contest - All Cash PrizesIt's a new EA from the developers that created Forex Over Drive (back story: Forex Over Drive was a once popular EA that drove over the cliff some time ago due to it having a stop loss of 300 pips that kept getting hit). It is marketed by William Morrison, the same guy that marketed the extremely popular Million Dollar Pips (which has done well for us!), though he marketed a few others that bombed (Fast Forex Millions, Forex Replicator, and FX Phantom).

The developers behind FX Flash says it uses moving average and ATR to determine trend direction, stochastics and CCI to measure if pair is overbought or oversold for potential reversals within the overall trend. They then apply this strategy on a number of different pairs and timeframes to produce 16 seperate systems.

Here is a screen shot of the operation of their strategy on EURUSD M15:

FX Flash EA - Forex Razor Review

Trading corrections within the dominant trend is a sound strategy and will be profitable over time, as backtests and live tests are showing.

However, there is a much controversy as to the EA's originality (see below).

Accusation: Clone of Clone FX Flash EA - Forex Razor ReviewSeems this EA is a clone of a clone with tweaks on different pairs. The fact that it uses similar indicators and trades with the trend on short reversals initially reminded some veteran EA users of previous EAs, notably Wallstreet Forex Robot (and FE Trend Scalper and Lollipop).

Then one veteran EA user named Snowy, who popped open the hood of FX Flash,  noted that it shares 100% code as Aladdin5FX (which is a Russian tweak on Wallstreet Forex Robot):
http://eareview.net/live-forward-test/fx-flash#comment-13288.

According to the Snowy the coder of FX Flash was lazy or incapable of rewriting the code of Aladdin5FX, instead leaving almost everything untouched, even the kyrillian notes in the code or the names of the former external and now hidden variables.

The main difference, it seems, is that this clone of a clone is optimized and run on different pairs and time frames (without the Martingale element of Aladdin5FX), and then these optimized settings have been hardcoded and hidden (changed the external variables to internal ones), leaving only simple things like mm, max trades, etc., open for the user, with everything protected with mqllock.

Backtest Evidence:

Official backtest: http://fxflash.com/results/

Taking dukascopy tick data starting at 2007.03.30 and end at 2013.01.29, developers provide 99% quality back tests for all 16 systems and combines them all with an external software into one test. There are draw down periods and unsmooth equity curves in all 16 versions but combined together they seem to make an excellent equity curve and drawdown.

Razor Warning: Some of the 16 systems have max dd exceeding 35% and while putting all 16 together might smooth out the draw downs, as the combined report shows, it might also compound them as well in forward trading. You can mitigate this potential risk by reducing the risk by half.

Also, you might want to backtest the more recent period from 2012 till present to see all versions are still living up its historical results.

A more skeptical back test of one of the 16 systems comes from Snowy, the same individual who discovered that FX Flash is a clone of Aladdin 5 FX:
http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/fx-flash-audjpy-m15-v1/35178

Verified Trading Accounts: 

ForexRazor.com's Forward Tests:

Settings  Default (MaxTrades 3), AutoMM 2 on all pairs
Started March, 2013
Broker  www.excelmarkets.com
Account Type Live, micro ($300); Demo,micro ($5000)
Pairs & Versions  All
EA Version  1.5
$300 real: http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/account.aspx?sid=14667


5K demo: http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/account.aspx?sid=14666



Official account:
Other Performances:
Most live accounts look good, though there is still not too much live history to any of them, so still premature to base as a guide to longer term performance.

Pros

  • It trades with a sound logic that will most likely hold up over time
  • It has a remarkably high win rate
  • It works on 7 pairs for added diversification
  • It does not rely on grids, martingales, or scalping methods
  • It has smooth backtests with 99% tick quality from 2007 till present
  • It has excellent forward results out the door
  • It is priced at a low $47

Cons

  • It is probably a tweaked clone of Aladdin 5 FX, which itself is a tweaked clone of Wallstreet Forex Robot
  • It is probably priced low because it is not an original EA
  • Since most pairs and time frames are highly correlated, diversification into so many pairs and time frames can perhaps add to future draw downs (even though DD was more smoothed out in combined backtests).
  • Some of the 16 systems may have been curve-fitted
  • Though live results are promising, it is still too early to tell


Overall Assessment

I don' t like that FX Flash could very well be a 100% clone of Alladdin 5 FX, which itself is a Russian copy and tweak on the more famous Wallstreet Forex Robot. However, I do acknowledge that credit must be given for copying a clone (which is itself a clone) and optimizing it on different pairs and time frames to make 16 systems for more diversification. I do like the fact that the back tests are 99% quality and generally look good, though some of them might be over-optimized and curve-fitted, as critics have pointed out. The biggest plus on this EA's side is that live forward tests thus far look promising, and the price is low enough to encourage many to give it a try. 
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2 comments:


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