Monday, 29 April 2013

CFTC COT Report 23 April 2013 - Speculators Add to USD Long

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 23 April, published 26 April 2013 - Technical Analysis.  The speculators net long in the USD increased last week  to 328K contracts, up from 300K in the prior week.  Most of the change came from selling in the Australian Dollar versus the USD.  There was also a small reduction in the short yen versus the USD.  Other position changes were minor.

There was a small increase in the size of the euro short position, and this contrasted to the change in the SF.  Since the SF and the euro have been pegged together by the Swiss, these two currencies have usually moved together.  With specs flipping to the  long side of the Swissie, this was not true last week.

We have been amazed how the speculative shorts have remained in the pound, despite unrewarding market action.  Instead of liquidation in the period, the specs increased their short to 89.1K, up from 87.4K the prior week.  It is even more perplexing, after the positive British GDP report, that the short positions remain.

Looking back on the recent trade in the pound, in the report of February 19, when the pound closed at 154.25, the total spec short was only 40.7K.  Now the short position is  over 89K, and the market settled at 154.70.  This means there are people holding positions with losses in 48K contracts.  These pound bears must have a lot of money and patience.  Will there ever be a short squeeze? 
  • US Dollar Index: The total speculative long in the DI increased by about 1.8K contracts.  Almost all the buying was done by the small spec who has increased his position to a 5.3 ratio long.  This remains a contract where the little spec is not a big participant. The big spec is long 75.1% of the long side of the DI, and short 26.6%.
  • Euro (EUR/USD): There was an increase in the OI of 13.2K caused mostly by an increase in commercial activity.  Speculators did increase their short euro positions by about 3K but they are not real heavy on the short side.  There is a large active option trade in the euro.  Option trade shows up in the spreading column in the original source report.  In this report with delta-adjusted options, it shows 14.3% of the total market.  The short form shows us futures spreading is 5.6K, so the remainder is 39.7K in option trade.
  • British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The spec short position in the pound was increased from 87.4K last week to 89.2K this week.  The small specs are unbalanced shorts by a 2.7 ratio and the large specs by a 2.8-to-1.  After the cut-off date for this report, there was a bullish GDP number which caused the pound to rally.  We expect there should be some long liquidation which shows up in next week's report.
  • Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): Specs made a very small reduction in their short yen position to 118K from 125.8K last week.  Large specs remain long to a 3.9 ratio and the small specs 2.8.  The option trade is very large in the yen 31.5K, or 12 % of the total OI.
  • Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The large spec decreased his long by 6.1K, as he flipped to the long side of the SF.  He joins the small spec who flipped last week, but their combined long is only 620 contracts.
  • Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Large specs are big shorts in the C$, by a 3.7-to-1 ratio, and there has been little change from last week.  Nominally the small specs are token shorts.  Since the report, the Canadian has strengthened, going against the spec positions. 
  • New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): Large specs made a token reduction in their big spec long in the NZ, but they remain long 84.3% of this small market.  They are short 22.9% of this market.  How they go determines the market direction.
  • Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Specs have thrown in the towel on the long side of they A$, having reduced their long bet from 60.9K to 29.1.  Small specs, not real big in the A$, have flipped to the short side of the market.  The total spec long has come down from almost 92K just three weeks ago. For the three days since the report's end, the selling seems to have abated.
Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through April 23, 2013
US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 78,650 59,066 20,952 10,106 1,909 7,547 53,858
Change: 469 -1,158 -914 2,236 245 -641 1,106
 % Open Interest: 75.1 26.6 12.8 2.4 9.6 68.5
Euro (EUR/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 277,463 48,081 82,423 44,033 61,088 145,647 94,250
Change: 13,215 -1,251 2,835 511 -400 8,206 5,031
 % Open Interest: 17.3 29.7 15.9 22.0 52.5 34.0
British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 217,005 32,934 93,318 16,881 45,665 156,066 66,897
Change: 30 -769 -2,309 -850 2,430 1,072 -668
 % Open Interest: 15.2 43.0 7.8 21.0 71.9 30.8
Japanese Yen (JPY/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 261,864 27,725 102,818 22,362 65,243 177,684 59,710
Change: -2,978 216 -15,291 2,959 -370 -10,467 8,369
 % Open Interest: 10.6 39.3 8.5 24.9 67.9 22.8
Swiss Franc (CHF/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 52,477 12,396 12,070 13,049 12,755 25,734 26,354
Change: -4,122 -1,624 -6,140 -1,241 501 -1,130 1,644
 % Open Interest: 23.6 23.0 24.9 24.3 49.0 50.2
Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 183,120 26,817 99,554 28,788 38,674 121,602 38,980
Change: 1,462 1,898 -2,375 905 2,318 -1,682 1,178
 % Open Interest: 14.6 54.4 15.7 21.1 66.4 21.3
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 45,127 38,027 10,322 4,608 2,984 2,374 31,703
Change: -1,513 -1,959 1,144 105 204 344 -2,858
 % Open Interest: 84.3 22.9 10.2 6.6 5.3 70.3
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
(1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial
Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short
Contracts: 181,538 83,252 52,371 28,576 30,334 57,425 86,548
Change: -2,899 -15,222 6,291 -5,167 5,121 13,435 -18,365
 % Open Interest: 45.9 28.8 15.7 16.7 31.6 47.7


To view COT report data released by the CFTC, please see the attached files:
BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.

For general information about the COT report, please see the article The CFTC Commitments of Traders Report
Facebook Excel Markets Tweet Excel Markets Reddit Excel Markets Digg Excel Markets

3 comments:




  1. رش مبيدات بالدمام
    شركة كشف تسربات بالدمام
    شركة كشف تسربات بجدة
    شركة تسليك مجارى بالدمام
    شركة كشف تسربات بالقصيم
    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالمدينة المنورة
    شركة تسليك مجارى بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة دهانات بالرياض
    كشف تسربات بالرياض
    شركة كشف تسربات بالمدينة المنورة
    شركة كشف تسربات بالقصيم
    شركة كشف تسربات بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة كشف تسربات بجدة

    شركة كشف تسربات بالقصيم

    شركة تسليك مجارى بابها وخميس مشيط

    رش مبيدات بابها

    رش مبيدات بالدمام

    شركة تسليك مجارى بالدمام
    شركة كشف تسربات بالدمام


    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة نقل اثاث بالمدينة المنورة


    شركة كشف تسربات فارس


    رش مبيدات فارس


    اكبر شركة مقاولات بمنطقة عسير

    تنظيف منازل بالطائف

    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة تسليك مجارى بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة نقل اثاث بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة كشف تسربات بالمدينة المنورة

    شركة تسليك مجارى بجدة

    شركة مكافحة حشرات بجدة

    شركة نظافة عامة بجدة

    شركة نقل اثاث بجدة

    شركة كشف تسربات بجدة

    شركة تسليك مجارى بالدمام

    شركة تنظيف مسابح بالدمام

    شركة تنظيف موكيت بالدمام

    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام

    شركة كشف تسربات بالدمام

    شركة نظافة عامة بالدمام

    شركة نقل اثاث بالدمام

    شركة تسليك مجارى بالرياض

    تخزين اثاث بالرياض

    ReplyDelete