Friday, 20 September 2013

Excel Markets Week Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Week Review and Preview By far the overwhelming news in the forex markets this past week was Bernanke and friends' decision to postpone the anticipated taper of the $85B monthly bond purchases. 

Bernanke said it it was because the economy was slowing. 

Two days later the Fed's Bullard, a voting member on the Fed Committee, said he expects a tight October taper vote.  How is this possible?  Was he attending the same meeting?

The coming week begins with Sunday's general election in Germany.  It is generally assumed that Chancellor Merkel will be able to forge a compromise third government, but the votes are yet to be counted.  There are those who claim it is now fashionable not to vote, making the outcome harder to predict. 

One thing that has been  predictable has been Merkel's pro euro stance.  The euro experience may be costly, yes, but it is viewed as a price worth paying to keep your fellow Eurozone members on-side.

This will be followed on Monday with the German Manufacturing PMI expected to be up to 52.2 from 51.8 during the last period.  On Tuesday the German IFO Business Climate is forecast to be up to 108 from 107.5.  German expectations often exceed the realizations.

On Tuesday, we get the Canadian Retail expectations, plus 0.6% after last period's negative's 0.8%.

Next week in the US, we get the US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, estimated to be 80, down from 81.5 in the prior period.  This will be followed on Wednesday by the Durable Goods Report estimated to be up 1.1% compared to a negative 0.6 number. 

Later the same day, we get the new home sales, expected to be 420, up from 394.  We expect poor numbers will be USD-negative.

On Thursday, we get the US GDP Annualized Expected to be 2.6% up from, 2.5%, and the US Initial Jobless Claims 325Kup from 294K.

In the UK on Thursday, we get the UK GDP Q/Q, estimated to be 0.7% unchanged from 0.7% in the previous report, and the UK current account, estimated to be a negative £11B less than £14.51B in the previous period.
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