Saturday, 29 June 2013

Looking Ahead To Next Week's Many Market Reports

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

ECN Forex Broker Excel Markets Analysis by Ralph Shell Next week promises to be a busy week in the Forex markets as there are many reports which can impart volatility to the markets. Compounding this is the 4th of July holiday in the US, when the trading community will be depleted.

The reports start Sunday night with both the Japanese and the Chinese manufacturing indexes.  The Japanese index is estimated to be a positive 3 and the Chinese index is estimated to be 50.1, barely positive.

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Increased Use of USD for Reserve Currency

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Every quarter, the IMF publishes the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Reserves (COFER) data. The IMF reports:

"COFER data are submitted to the IMF on a voluntary and confidential basis by 114 member countries, comprising all 24 industrial countries and 90 out of the 160 developing countries. The data are not country-specific, but are presented in aggregate form for each currency for three groupings: all countries, industrial countries, and developing countries."

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Thursday, 27 June 2013

Does Bernanke Deserve A Raise?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Does Bernanke Deserve A Raise? Come Monday July the 1st, Mark Carney will begin his new job as the world's highest paid central banker.  It is reported Carney will make £874,000 ($1.340,000), quite a raise from the C$429,600 at his last gig in Canada.  This is also more than his predecessors salary of £305,368, but Mervyn King also receives a pension of £250K per year.

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Wednesday, 26 June 2013

Where Does Chancellor Merkel Really Stand?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Where Does Chancellor Merkel Really Stand? For the past 14 years Angela Merkel has been the leader of her party, the Christian Democratic Union, and since 2005 she has been Germany's leader.  A criticism of Merkel is that she is too cautious, often watching the direction of the political weather vanes before committing.  For many surviving politicians this is not an uncommon trait.

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Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Speculators Massive USD Sellers

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 18 June, published 21 June 2013, Technical Analysis.  Speculators continued their massive selling of the USD, as they cover their shorts in the euro, pound, SF, the DI and the yen.  Last week, the total long the USD and short another currency was 414.4K.  It was reduced to 255.2K as the the specs bought aggressively.  This is down from an all-time USD long of 540.4 back on the May 28 report.

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Friday, 21 June 2013

Excel Markets Demo Trading Contest

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Tuesday, 18 June 2013

CFTC COT Report 11 June 2013 - Big Buying in the Euro

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 11 June, published 14 June 2013, Technical Analysis. There was big buying in the euro which resulted in the spec euro short position being reduced to only 25.1K.  This is a big reduction from the short position of the last two weeks which was 101K and 110K.  There were also sizable reductions in the short positions in the pound and the SF. 

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Thursday, 13 June 2013

Using Volume and Open Interest to Find Trades

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

As we approach the end of the quarterly trading activity in the foreign exchange futures markets, the trade usually picks up.  Part of this trade involves the spreading from the current to the next contract, in this case from June to September.  This spreading, or rolling of the position forward, may be either for speculators or for hedgers who need price protect for their commercial activity.  Another possibility for the elevated activity is using the price of the futures as the price for cross-border commercial trades.

The many different users during the period from the 1st of an expiration month until the third Wednesday make the futures activity hard to read.  On other occasions it is a bit easier, although we never really know for sure.  As an example, when the specs are very short, and the OI (open interest) goes up, this usually means, the specs are adding to their shorts.

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Tuesday, 11 June 2013

Can the Euro Rally Continue?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

June has been a good month for the euro and the bulls keep taking money from the bears.  To date, the EURUSD (FXE) has been moved up around 300 pips. The daily chart suggests there may be more. 

Europe's economic malaise had attracted an abundance of sellers in the euro, with concern the crises would continue.  Recently, Evans-Pritchard offered this opinion in the Telegraph.

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Monday, 10 June 2013

CFTC COT Report 04 June 2013 - Specs Remain Massive USD Longs

There was some selling of the big USD long, primarily buying of the euro and the yen versus purchase of the USD.  The euro short was reduced by about 34.4K but remains a hefty 74.8K contracts.  Likewise, the yen short was reduced by 17K.  The total USD long and short another currency remained very large 520.2K

While specs were selling the USD against the euro and the yen, they were buying the USD against all the commodity currencies. The short position in the C$ was increased by about 9.3K and in the A$ by 18.6K.  The spec long in the NZ$ was reduced by about 9.5K.  This means specs are sport the commodity currencies buy a bog number, 132K.

There was record volume trading in the currency markets at the CME last week.  As we pointed out in our weekly review and look forward, trade in the euro one day exceeded $80B.  It remains to be determined if this is the prelude to liquidation.

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Saturday, 8 June 2013

Forex Markets Looking Forward - NFP Report Has Little Impact

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Demo Account Forex Trading Contest, June 2013Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report came in better than expected - 175K new jobs in May - although there was a reduction in the April number.  US equity markets were impressed, and  the Dow closed over 200 higher. The theory that good employment news would cause the Fed to come closer to the day when they would taper off the size of their bond purchases, and thereby cause equities to sell off, was flawed.
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Thursday, 6 June 2013

Trading a High Impact Event

Excel Markets Demo Account Forex Trading Contest, June 2013Trading a high impact event can be a scintillating experience, should you be on the right side of the market, or, if you are not so lucky, it can be as painful as a dentist dealing with your impacted tooth.  With the possibility of a wild market, caused by the unpredictable events of the day, do you really want to be involved?
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Tuesday, 4 June 2013

New Excel Markets Demo Account Forex Trading Contests, June 2013

Wow, lots of industry news lately, Metaquotes is playing hardball with third party players, today announcing the banning of Zulutrade, Myfxbook, Tradency, Tradeo etc. which in some cases happened weeks ago but is just now being announced by Metaquotes.  On the one hand, you DO have to have proper controls in place to ensure the environments you are providing for brokers is secure and 100% reliable, and Metatrader admittedly needed some house cleaning and probably needs more.  On the other hand, it seems obvious to me anyways that the attacks are over-zealous and monopolistic in nature.  Anyhow, onto features and updates.
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