Wednesday, 31 July 2013

Is the US Economy Really Growing Faster than the Canadian?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading ContestWednesday 31 July, the US and the Canadian GDP numbers were released at the same time, and both were numbers that missed the estimates.  The Canadian M/M number was a positive 0.2%, less than the expected 0.3%.  There was an increase in the Y/Y number from 1.4% to 1.6% which had been forecast.

The US GDP number came in better than expected, an Annualized (Q/Q) rate of 1.7%, compared to the expected 1.0%.  The increase in the US GDP came from revisions in the methodology used to compute the GDP.  Some of the changes are: to count research and development by business, government, and non-profit institutions as income, no longer an expense; and expenditures by business and entertainment, literary and other artistic originals will be treated as fixed investments.  We wonder if this will cause the IRS to treat the tax impact of these endeavors differently?

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Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Speculators Reduce USD Long Positions

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 23 July, published 26 July 2013, Technical Analysis. Specs were net sellers of the USD in the period ending July 23rd.  The total spec long position in the USD was reduced to 398.1K down from 431.8K.  The reductions in the USD longs came as the USD was sold against the euro, the A$, and the C$.  The biggest change was in the euro.  Short positions were reduced to 48K, down from 65.5K

Short positions in the yen and the pound increased.  The yen short remains a very last 123.3K up from 120.3K in the previous period.  Since the cut off date for this report, the yen has gotten stronger, taking equity from the shorts.

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Sunday, 28 July 2013

The Week in Forex - Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading ContestFollowing a week where the USD was a loser against all the major currencies, we are now looking forward to a week with major reports.

Before going to the anticipated numbers in those reports, we wish to briefly comment on the revelations of the new COT report, released late Friday (26 July).

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Friday, 26 July 2013

Are the Yen Bears Growing Impatient?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading Contest After the election on the 21st of July - which gave PM Abe a majority in both houses - the yen bears had to be disappointed; the market failed to give them a windfall profit.  The political victory, it seems, had been anticipated, and therefore was already priced into the market.

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Thursday, 25 July 2013

Do You Prefer the Euro or the Pound?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading ContestThere was some good economic news coming from Europe yesterday, Wednesday, 24 July.  For the first time since the report from February 2012, we had a score above 50, which is supposed to indicate the economy is growing.  The EU Composite came in at 50.4, up from 48.8 last month.  With the EU Manufacturing 50.1 and the Services Index 49.6. the math involved in achieving the Composite Index eludes us, but markets looked past this. 

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Wednesday, 24 July 2013

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading Contest - August 2013

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading ContestWe are beginning a new Excel Markets-sponsored trading contest - a few more days to register - this one is traded on demo accounts and has
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Our contests, unlike all others on the web, are heavily moderated to mitigate rampant cheating and usage of multiple accounts. We encourage you to join and try it out :)

Select the Zero Hero Demo Account Contest on our trading contests page to join - http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/trading-contests.aspx. 

Your statistics will be auto-tracked and a real-time leaderboard is available for comparing your contest position to others.

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Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Global Leaders Assure Markets Need Not Worry

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading Contest
Recently, Fed Chairman mused that the current expansion of the potential money supply by $85B per month might be tapered lower in the future as the economy recovery continues.  Markets reacted violently to this threat.  Reduction of the Fed's  monetary stimulus reverberated globally.  Equities stopped going up, and the debt rates soared higher.

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Winners - Excel Markets Safe Trader's Demo Account Contest

Congratulations! The Winners of the most recent Excel Markets-sponsored Safe Trader's Demo Account Trading Contest have been officially declared and you can see the final rankings, including the top 6, on the rankings page.  2 contestants were disqualified to get to the top 6; however, it is clear that Razor contestants are getting firmly to grips with the practicalities of trading drawdown, and we are confident that our commitment to guiding you, our Traders, to optimising your managed forex trading is paying off - for some of you in cold, hard cash. 

The contest rule that caused disqualification:
Rule 13. One entry per household and one IP.  We will track and enforce this using several tracking methods.

Click on image to enlarge

We have emailed the winners to collect payment details and forward on payments asap.  If you are a winner please ensure you get us payment details within 30 days.

We realize it must be very disappointing to be in the top 6 and then get disqualified, and we realize most contests on the web don't have much moderation, if any, so this is a change; nevertheless, we aim to keep our contests fair for everyone.
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Monday, 22 July 2013

Specs Remain Friendly to the USD

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 16 July, published 19 July 2013, Technical Analysis. Specs were again sellers of other currencies versus the USD. The total net USD long position has grown to 431.8K contracts, up from 412.2 contracts last week and 222.8K contracts in the last four weeks. The biggest long USD position is against a short yen, followed by short A$, and then the euro and the pound.

The Australian Dollar, the Canadian and the New Zealand Dollar are deemed commodity currencies, and supposedly trade in the same direction a good part of the time. Currently specs are short all three currencies, for a total of 137.1K contracts. This is the biggest long USD and short commodity contracts in over ten months.

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Canadian Dollar Considers Next Crude Move

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

No sooner had Ben Bernanke declared that the US economy was not growing fast enough to withdraw the monetary stimulus, we heard from Detroit.  Yes, the once 6th-largest city in the US filed for bankruptcy.  Not that this should be surprising, since the city had been mis-managed for years.  Serious effort to balance the budget was lacking, crime prevailed on the streets and politicians running the city paid themselves and their supporters who worked for the city well.

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Thursday, 18 July 2013

Looking Beyond Bernanke's Testimony for a Forex Trade

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Much of the news cycle has focused on comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke.  For equities, the Fed's activities are of prime importance.  Bad news is regarded as good news since a postponed recovery means Bernanke will continue expand the money supply.  This is regarded as bullish by the equities and commodity crowd and is usually bearish for the USD. 

This is straight forward enough, but a problem occurs when different analysts hear the Chairman saying different things.  One might think that Bernanke has said there is sufficient recovery, and some tapering of the asset purchases will commence as soon as September 2013.  Others, however, will insist Bernanke is going to wait for more data before the monetary contraction will begin.

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Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Australian Dollar Finally Rallies - But Will It Hold?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Australian Dollar Finally Rallies - But Will It Hold? For the first time since June the 13th the Aussie has had a rally of over 200 pips.  The catalyst for the rally was notes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  At the May7th meeting, this body reduced the bank rate to 2.75 from 3%.  The A$ bears were hoping there would be another rate reduction to 2.5%, but sadly for the bears the rate was left unchanged.  The next meeting is scheduled to be held August 6th 2013.

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Monday, 15 July 2013

COT Report 09 July 2013 - Buying in the USD Continues

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 09 July, published 12 July 2013, Technical Analysis. Buying in the USD continued in a big way in the latest COT week.  The total USD long versus a short in other currencies soared to 412,239 contracts as opposed to 326,327 the previous week; this is still less than the USD long reported in the May 28 report, 540,478, but it is a big number - a very big weekly increase.

Short positions in all of the currencies increased except those positions in the A$ and the NZ$.  The long in the DI, a long USD position, was also increased. 

There was a big rally in the euro after the cut-off for this report.  With this run-up, there was no doubt pressure on the new euro shorts.  Market action since the end of the report, harming the shorts, was much the same in the pound. Likewise in the yen, there was some strength after the cut off for the report but the yen has again weakened today.

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Weekly Excel Markets Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

As we have noted (Thursday, July 11), last week was a week when the forex markets were taking their cue from the central bankers.  In the process, the once almighty USD had some weak moments as Bernanke claims the easy money policies are going to remain, probably until well after he leaves office in just seven months.

These comments were well received in the equities markets and most of the Indexes moved into new high ground.  Especially vulnerable were the euro shorts.  The vicious rally in the euro leaves the impression there are some unknown forces supporting the euro.  From our vantage, the market action must be respected even though there are numerous sovereign debt problems in the euro zone that are not being addressed.

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Friday, 12 July 2013

Central Bankers Tout Their Influence

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

EURUSD - Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker Last week, the central bankers in both the ECB and the UK announced money in Europe and the UK was going to remain loose for an extended period.  Prior to the latest meeting in Europe, the Fed's Bernanke had jolted the global debt markets with musings about the possibility they might taper off their monthly expansion of their loan portfolio.

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Wednesday, 10 July 2013

What Is Next for the Volatile Japanese Yen?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Safe Trader Demo Account Contest, July 2013For the first time since the middle of June, the yen has firmed today versus the USD.  During that period, the yen slipped from 94 to the USD to over 101 - until today.  There are many reasons given for today's reversal. 

We even heard the lame excuse that economic difficulties else where have resulted, once again, in the yen being elevated to a safe-haven currency.  Sure, the country is stable, but parking your money in yen assets has resulted in a 10% loss this year.  And the yen 10-year bond yields .85%, while the US today was 2.62%.  Again, not much appeal here either to hold the yen.

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Tuesday, 9 July 2013

Big Demand For The USD

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 02 July, published 08 July 2013, Technical Analysis. There was aggressive demand for the USD revealed in the latest COT report. The total USD long versus short another currency increased from 222.9K to 326.3K in just a week. While this is a large weekly increase, the total falls far short of the record USD long of 540.4K the last week in May.

The biggest re-positioning came in the euro. Specs had gotten long the euro, and that trade did not work out. They promptly flipped from their long of 17.3K to a short euro position of 23K. Recent market action has favored the shorts.

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Saturday, 6 July 2013

Debt Markets Respond to NFP Report

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Safe Trader Demo Account Contest, July 2013Often, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report is the most important report of the week, and a game-changer in many markets.  Friday, July 5, the report grabbed the headlines - 195,000 new jobs - which was 30,000 more than expected, and the number from last month was adjusted upwards by 20,000.  Details of the report, however, are less glowing than the headlines.

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Friday, 5 July 2013

Euro-Pound Sell-Off as Central Banks Vow to Keep Rates Low

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Both the Bank of England and the ECB have vowed to keep rates low, hoping easy money is going to revive their moribund economies.  Since this was the first policy meeting presided over by the BOE's new superstar central banker, Mark Carney, keeping the status quo was to be expected.  The news, though, was enough to knock the GBPUSD down over 200 pips.

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Thursday, 4 July 2013

US Independence Day Trading Hours

Metals Trading 4th July 2013 Excel Markets Clients

Please note that the trading time of certain financial instruments on US Independence Day, 04 July 2013 outside of US will run as follows:

CFDs on Metals
Gold, Silver: Shutting down at 19:15 GMT+3 and opening again July 5 01:00 GMT+3

All other financial instruments will be unaffected by the changes and will be available for trading during normal trading hours.

Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker
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Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Canadian Dollar Sinks to 2-Year Low - What Next?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Safe Trader Demo Account Contest, July 2013With little fanfare, the Canadian Dollar has quietly slipped to the lowest level since October 2011.  At that time, the USD briefly traded above 1.06.  This weakness has occurred despite the fact that central bankers have been favoring the Canadian Dollar as part of their allocated reserve currencies.  According to IMF data, these bankers added almost $95B of C$'s during the past six months.

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Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Excel Markets Safe Trader's Demo Account Contest - Register Today, Start Tomorrow

Achieve Your Best Equity Increase – While Keeping Your Drawdown Less Than 10%.

Forex Razor is hosting another trading contest - The Safe Trader's Contest - with thousands in cash prizes just hours from now, don't worry registration is still open :)

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Excel Markets Safe Trader's Demo Account Contest
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Monday, 1 July 2013

Speculative Selling in the USD Continues

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 25 June, published 28 June 2013, Technical Analysis. Speculative selling in the USD continued in the most recent period, taking the total USD long position down to 223K from last week's 255K.  Since the last report in May when the total USD positions were at a record high of 540K, selling in the USD has been consistent.

The biggest position change since the May 28th report has been in the euro.  There, the total spec position went from a short of 109.2k to the current position, long 17.2K.  Position swings of this size are unusual and are even more unusual when, for the month of May, the euro was lower. 

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