Saturday, 31 August 2013

Excel Markets Restricted Trading Hours on US Labor Day

NOTICE TO EXCEL MARKETS TRADERS AND CLIENTS

Due to the low liquidity available on metals trading on US Labor Day, 02 September 2103, which may have an adverse effect on available spreads, Excel Markets has decided to close trading on metals during the hours outlined below in order to protect Clients from widening spreads resulting in stop outs etc.

All other financial instruments will be unaffected by the changes and will be available for trading during normal trading hours.

CFDs on Metals
Gold, Silver: 19:45 - 24:00 Server Time (UTC +3) 
Normal Opening resumes on Tuesday, 03 September, 01:00 Server Time (UTC +3)

If you have any questions or concerns regarding this matter please contact support[at]excelmarkets.com.

Excel Markets support[at]excelmarkets.com

Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker Support
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Friday, 30 August 2013

First Euro Sell-Off In Weeks

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

For the first time in seven weeks the EURUSD has had a decisive sell-off.  After stumbling Wednesday, closing at about 1.3340, the slide continued yesterday (Thursday), all the way down to 132.20. 

The catalyst for the sell-off appeared to be good US economic data.  The weekly first-time unemployment was as expected, 331K, and the Quarterly GDP (Annualized) was reported at 2.5% better the the 2.2% guess.

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Thursday, 29 August 2013

Which Way for the Yen?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets ECN Forex BrokerDespite PM Abe's best efforts to demean the value of the yen, is it possible there are still some traders who regard the yen as a safe haven destination during troubled times?  Times are indeed troubled, as the pieces are being located for an attack upon the dictator who has crossed the line.

For President Obama, who drew the line, he must respond.  Failing to respond would reveal him to be a bluffer, and there would then be further challenges to his leadership.  From the press leaks, it appears the military response will be several days of guided missiles, perhaps followed by some smart and bunker bombs.

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Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Market Moves During Quiet Times

Back in the old days, prior to instant communications via smart phones, tablets, or laptops, late August used to be a very quiet time.  Then, the trading desks were manned by junior traders who had limited authority, merely waiting while the partners and senior traders were away, enjoying the last weeks of Summer.

Having spent the last week away from my office, I personally found the instant communications  to be lacking.  There is a difference between knowing the last tick, however, and knowing the multiple drivers that influence the last mini-trend.  Perhaps it is the missing second or third screen, but, more likely, it may be the many distractions when you are away.

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Excel Markets Restricted Trading Hours on US Labor Day

NOTICE TO EXCEL MARKETS TRADERS AND CLIENTS

Due to the low liquidity available on metals trading on US Labor Day, 02 September 2103, which may have an adverse effect on available spreads, Excel Markets has decided to close trading on metals during the hours outlined below in order to protect Clients from widening spreads resulting in stop outs etc.

All other financial instruments will be unaffected by the changes and will be available for trading during normal trading hours.

CFDs on Metals
Gold, Silver: 19:45 - 24:00 Server Time (UTC +3) 
Normal Opening resumes on Tuesday, 03 September, 01:00 Server Time (UTC +3)

If you have any questions or concerns regarding this matter please contact support[at]excelmarkets.com.

Excel Markets support[at]excelmarkets.com

Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker Support
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Monday, 26 August 2013

Speculators Continue to Sell USD - COT Report 20 August 2013

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report - What Is It?CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 20 August, published 23 August 2013, Technical Analysis.  From a high of 431.8K contracts on July 16th, the total USD spec long has slipped  to 238.4 in the current report.  The biggest shift during this period has been in the euro.  In the July 16th report, specs were short 65.5K.  The most recent report shows the specs have flipped their position, and are now long 28.6K.

The big short positions, versus the USD, remain in the yen and the A$.  The total yen short has been somewhat reduced to 95K, while the A$ position has been reduced to 84.7K  Should those short positions remain and the euro buying continues, we would eventually have a long euro short yen and Aussie position.

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Thursday, 15 August 2013

Equity Bulls Regroup as USD Sinks

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Equity Bulls Regroup As USD Sinks, Excel Markets Analysis It would seem that equity bulls are merely regrouping, at least judging by the behavior of the USD (EURUSD, UUP, UDN).  If this were really a bear deal, the speculative hot money would be running to the USD for cover.

Earlier today, Thursday 15 August, the US Net Long-Term TIC Flow report showed a net outflow of $66.98B.  Granted, these numbers are from June, antiquated for today's analysis; however, they are interesting.

The big outflow of foreign US investments in June was in Treasuries from the largest US investors, China and Japan.  Since this was when Chairman Bernanke started to openly muse about tapering off his buying program, this makes sense.  Collectively, these two countries own over $2T of Treasuries, and as the rates rise, anticipating the reduction in the Fed's bond purchasing, the value of their holdings is about to depreciate.  Why not be sellers?

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Tuesday, 13 August 2013

Is the Euro Rally Over?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Is the Euro Rally Over? For the past five weeks the USD has lost to the Euro (FXE, EURUSD, UUP UDN). From a low of around 1.2755, the market climbed to almost 1.34.  Generally, the reason given for the rally was things were not so bad, and the European debt crisis was over.  Next, the confident euro bulls asserted, the recession was over, and we were on the cusp of positive growth, all be it small.  But is this bullish chatter really worth a 640 pip rally?

Euroskeptics have been around for years, aware that the euro was a currency ill-suited for all members.  Rather, it was  was a recipe for economic imbalances and resulting conflict.  Why then, they wonder, has the Euro even survived, let alone be so strong?

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Monday, 12 August 2013

Australian Dollar Short Sets New Record - COT Report 06 August 2013

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 06 August, published 09 August 2013, Technical Analysis.  Speculative selling in the Australian Dollar continued taking the short positions to a record high of 104,269 contracts.  Each contract is A$100,000.  Most of the selling was done prior to the RBA's rate cut to 2.5%.  The market staged a small rally back above .90 after the news was released.  It did not appear there was much short-covering in the A$ after the report.

The total net USD long position was again reduced to 344K from 361K in the previous week.  The largest short positions are in the yen, the Australian Dollar and the British pound.  Considering the price action in the pound, there probably was some short covering after the report's cut-off date of August 6th.

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Sunday, 11 August 2013

Trading Places - Excel Markets Week Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker Forex Week Review. It has been a week when the USD has come under pressure.  The September DI had a high of about 82.15, slipped to 81 and then recovered to 81.18.  Rather than view this as a mojor shift against the USD, I see this as some long-overdue spec liquidation.  According to our COT technical analysis for the report of July 30th, specs were long 361K contracts of USD's versus shorts in every major currency.

The biggest spec short positions were in the yen, the Australian Dollar and the Pound.  Looking at the weekly price action, all three of these currencies worked higher; this had to put pressure on the USD as the shorts liquidated, selling the dollar.  Once USD selling of futures and options begins, it often lasts for more than a week. 

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Friday, 9 August 2013

New Forex Razor Features - Per Tick Custom Analysis and Tags

New Custom Analyzer Feature for Trading Performance Analyzer
The Forex Razor trading account performance analyzer now features a new dark gray button near the top right of the page that reads 'Analyze'.

Go to your own - or anyone else's - stats account: Stats > Browse Stats Accounts > [Account Name Link]

Click to Enlarge Trading Performance Analyzer

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A Trade in the British Pound?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

August, so far, has been a good month to be long the British pound.  On the 1st, the GBPUSD, (FXP, UUD, UDN) was close to 1.51, but since has rallied smartly to a high yesterday of over 1.5570.  Most of this week's headlines are about the euro strength; however, that move pails in comparison to the rally in the pound. The best the euro could do was a move from 1.3230 to almost 1.34.

This pound rally was caused by good economic news at a time when specs were committed to the short side of the pound.  We noted in our last COT report the specs were short 63.9K contracts of futures and delta adjusted options at the CME.  With the total open interest only 173K, this is a sizable share of the market.

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Thursday, 8 August 2013

Yen Bears Taking the Summer Off

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Analysis From November until May the yen bears, versus the USD, had a party, taking the yen's worth down from about 78 to well above 103 to the USD.  Looking at the monthly charts, there was a higher close on the USD compared to the yen for eight consecutive months. 

Now, for the third straight month, the yen is regaining lost ground, and the yen bears are getting punished for overstaying their position.

The currency move might be exaggerated because of reduced summer trade in the currency.  Trade is down at the Tokyo Stock Exchange by about 30%.  Likewise, the daily dollar-yen trading is down to about $10B in the last month, also a 30% reduction.

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Will the RBA’s Rate Cut Revive the Australian Economy?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Will the RBA's Rate Cut Revive the Australian Economy? It is not that the Australian economy is suffering from a debilitating recession, as are some of the countries in Southern Europe, but the vitality of the economy has slowed.  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Tuesday 06 August, reduced the bank rate .25 basis points to 2.5%, and down from 4.75% in August if 2011.

RBA Governor Stevens had these comments:

"In Australia, the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year. This is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The unemployment rate has edged higher. Recent data confirm that inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target. With growth in labour costs moderating, this is expected to remain the case over the next one to two years, even with the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate."

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Sunday, 4 August 2013

The Week in Forex - Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Forex Demo Account Trading ContestLast week was a week when the markets were supposed to quietly await the the conclusions of the central bankers from the US, Europe, and Britain.  The central bankers, however, seemed ambivalent, and mostly wanted to wait for the economic data, before embarking on a new course. 

Most observers think the US economy is the closest to a recovery of sufficient strength, which might result in monetary tightening.  Bernanke, in his prepared statement and at his press conference, did not acknowledge there was a timeframe for reducing his monthly purchases of US bonds and other paper.

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