Wednesday, 30 October 2013

The Washington Circus Continues To Entertain

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Today, Wednesday October 30th, it was Kathleen Sebelius's turn to testify before the US Congress in Washington. 

As head of Health and Human Services, she is the point person for the malfunctioning web site, HealthCare.gov.  This, of course, is the gateway to the Affordable Care Act where millions need to examine, compare, and sign up for the health care program of their choice.  The launch of this site has not gone well, and was down this morning as Secretary Sebelius was about to testify.  There are new people trying to correct the website and claim they will have it fixed by the end of November.

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Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Momentum Sell Signal Alert for NZD/USD

Steven Randolf, Excel Analyst

NZD/USD had risen nearly 800 pips from its September low of 0.7737 to its October 22nd high of 0.8542, whereupon it started a correction that looks serious enough to take it lower still.

The no-taper of September and debt deal optimism of October steadily pushed this pair upwards, but October 22nd proved to be a reversal point as the Kiwi trimmed 270 pips from its high over the last five days.

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Sunday, 27 October 2013

Trading Places - Excel Markets Week Review and Preview

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

The end of the partial US government shutdown allowed the 15% of the non essential Department of Labor employees go back to work.  Once there, they produced the belated NFP report; the numbers were a disappointment: only 148K new jobs were created, less than the estimate of 180K. 

Traders' reactions to the NFP number and the end of the shutdown were the same.  The US economy was harmed by the first event, and the NFP merely confirmed weakness in the US economy. 

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Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Two Ideas for Freighthopping GBPUSD

Steven Randolf, Excel Analyst

How do you hop aboard a moving a train without getting hurt?
You know the GBPUSD has been a bullish run ever since it crossed above the 200-DMA (Daily Simple Moving Average) at the end of August 2013 at the price of 1.5500, and now it has rocketed some 600 pips above that level. Perhaps you want to take up long positions on this pair but would like some ideas on how to trade its dizzy heights?

In the broad picture, my daily momentum system entered long this pair at the close of October 17th, at 1.6165, as you can see in the screen shot below:

Click to Enlarge GBPUSD Daily Currency Chart

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Sunday, 20 October 2013

US Debt Surges Ever Upwards

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

The day after Congress raised the debt level, the official US debt surged upwards to $17,075,590, 107,964.57.  This increase is over $327B for one day.  No, the record one-day spending was not all done in one day but was money borrowed from other government sources.  It must be real nice to have a source of funds hidden from the public of over $300B.  The result: over 17T US sovereign debt.

Now that this money has been paid back,  how do we know the same fund sources will not be available the next time the US government is short on spending change?  If Washington has this secret stash of $327B, was the government shutdown and the debt ceiling merely the timeline for a government charade?

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Saturday, 19 October 2013

Excel Markets Forex Demo Contest Burn to Winners Announced

Congratulations! The Winners of the Excel Markets Burn to Win Contest have been officially declared and you can see the final rankings of all 3,821, including the top 10, on the (myfxbook) rankings page

Click to Enlarge Winners List

We have emailed the Winners to secure payment details so that we may forward on payments asap.  If you are a winner please ensure you get us payment details within 30 days.

CURRENT CONTEST: Excel Markets Target DD Demo Contest - 'til October 31st - $5,000 USD Cash Prizes - 10 Winners - 1st Prize USD2,500


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Friday, 18 October 2013

Japan's Campaign to Eliminate Deflation Begins

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Finally, the fretting about the US government shutdown is over, and the market can look for new concerns.  It looks, from Thursday's market action following the vote in the US House of Representatives, that a settlement had been priced in to most of these markets, so there were no surprises. 

The naysayers claim it was a feeble kick of the can down the road.  This risks another shutdown in two or three months.  This, however, is unlikely for several reasons. 

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Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Four Signals to Ride Debt-Deal Optimism

Steven Randolf, Excel Analyst

Sometimes it doesn't rain but it pours. You don't see one or two trading opportunities, but many. This is what is happening on the yen front at the moment as the yen continues to weaken on trend momentum and overall debt-deal optimism.

Though everyone is nervous about what is going on in Washington, the significant gains seen on the stock indexes last Friday and yesterday (Monday) point toward an overall optimism that something will get worked out before the October 17th deadline.

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Monday, 14 October 2013

The British Pound Has Many Facets

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Excel Markets Analysis Trading in the pound earlier this year often involved conjecture of the pending new plans for the stodgy Bank of England by their new hire, Mark Carney, the Central Bank superstar from Canada.  Among the world's highest paid central bankers, he would certainly feel obliged to earn his keep, impacting both the economy and the pound...

Carney was expected to increase the size of the BOE's assets, buying outstanding gilts, thereby increasing the supply of money.  The pound bears were delighted that such aggressive action would be taken once Carney got settled in, since this would weaken the currency.  This faulty theory helped take the GBPUSD down to 148.75 in early July.

Anticipating the lower pound, futures and option specs at the CME pressed the short side, and according to our COT Report from data of July 2nd, had amassed a short of over 46K contracts. The short position was wrong and so far the impact of Carney has been minimal.

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Friday, 11 October 2013

Shutdown Settlement Rumours Rally Markets As Yen Falters

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

With the US Government shut-down well into the second week, it is to be expected that rumors of a settlement will begin to surface.  The most recent one is a story that the government default threat will be removed by an increase in the national debt, needed to finance the next six weeks.

Naturally, this will be rejected by President Obama who wants a longer timeframe, one that will go past the 2014 election, and a 'clean' bill.  By a clean bill, they mean one without a limit on spending, or efforts to narrow the budget deficit.  Spending limits have been a difficult task for this administration.

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Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Why the Loonie Fails to Fall

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

There was a time when the saying was "if the American economy came down with a cold, its neighbors would end up with pneumonia."  Currently, the US economy may not be afflicted but some early signs - coughing, wheezing - seem to be present. In large part, this is a self-inflicted slow down caused specifically by actions failed to be undertaken in Washington. 

Excel Markets ECN Forex Broker - Demo Trading Account ContestNaturally, the markets are apprehensive.  The politicians knew there were unresolved issues, namely a budget disagreement and an approaching debt limit.  Instead of negotiating to seek a compromise, Washington has sought to irritate the maximum number of people.  National Parks are closed to visitors.  Barricades are put at parking spaces at Mt. Rushmore so tourists cannot pull over to take a picture.  In many situations, more labor is employed to keep the parks closed than is required to keep them open.  Truly, we have government of the people by the government, for the government.

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Monday, 7 October 2013

GBP/AUD - How Did This Trade Get Away?

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

After a market has had a big run it all looks so simple.  If you had gotten aboard when the market had broken out to the upside and ridden the trend until the end you would have had a big winner.  But, sadly, the initial breakout proved false, and interest in the trade waned. Then the market resumed its primary trend higher, interrupted by profit-taking. 

The market I have been looking at is the forex chart of the GBP versus the AUD or GBPAUD. 

Going back to early April, the move has been from a low of 1.4410 to a high of 1.7450.  The daily chart suggests the high was made with twin tower candles August 21st and 22nd.  Since then, the market has been range bound, consolidating gains but unable to forge through into new high territory.

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Friday, 4 October 2013

Non Farm Payroll Report a Budget Casualty

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

There was a recent commentary by Charles Hugh Smith about the recent government shut-down. He makes a number of interesting points:

"The Shutdown Political Game: Inflict Maximum Pain to Score Cheap Points...

Here is the politicos' government shut-down game in a nutshell: inflict maximum pain on the rest of us to score cheap points with partisans.

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Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Out of Service: Federal Government Enters Shutdown Zone

Ralph Shell, Excel Analyst

Out of Service: Federal Governement Enters Shutdown Zone If almost all of these accounting types are taught about the same kinds of accounting rules and principles, how do we get so many different answers to the results of a government shut down?  One of the featured stories this week claimed that the US economy would lose $300M each day the government was shut down.

So how does this compute?  Some time in 2009, when we had $9T deficit which has grown to close to a $17T deficit, with the government open.  Does this mean the Keynesian spend-and-get rich plan does not work, or have we merely failed to prefect it?  We had the government open and the deficit sky rockets but close the government and they claim the economy tanks.

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Tuesday, 1 October 2013

USD Long Falls Sharply

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 24 September, published 27 September 2013, Technical Analysis.  Once again, and in the latest reporting period, the total USD aggregate long fell sharply to 73,006 contracts.  As is usually the case, there are some cross currents within the major trends. 

For months, one of the favored speculator shorts has been the Euro and its first cousins the Swiss Franc, but this trend began to turn several weeks ago.  Now, the Euro and the Swissie are combined - 74K longs versus the USD. 

With the pending ECB Meeting in Europe, and the budgetary crisis in Washington, this should be worth watching.

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